H man Development in ndia 20.9
shortage of young population of (a) Improving access to education
around 56 million by 2020, India considering the high dropout rates
will be the only country with a among senior
youth surplus of 47 million (Report students;
on Education, Skill Development and (b) Removing gender disparity especially
Labour Force (2013–14) Volume III, in the higher age group and in rural
Labour Bureau, 2014). areas;
As per the Economic Survey 2014–15, the (c) Improving quality of education,
main issue to address then is not just providing including pupil-teacher ratios and
employment but increasing the employability provision of
of the labour force in India. Employability is amenities in schools, especially in
contingent upon knowledge and skills developed view of the declining learning levels.
through quality education and training. Thus,
(ii) The lag in demographic transition between
any solution to the problem lies in a well-
different states that necessitates state-
designed education and training regime that sets
specific policies to optimally garner the
out to meet these objectives. The problem of low
benefits of the demographic dividend.
employability levels owing to poor quality of
Owing to substantial fertility decline in
education is accentuated by the fact that fewer
students opt for higher education in country. To the south during the last two decades,
garner the ‘demographic dividend’, the Survey the south is ahead in the demographic
suggested the following policy initiatives in this transition compared to the north,
regard: thereby the window is already wide open
in the south compared to the north. For
(i) A declining 0–14 population will impact
instance, the projected average age of 29
both elementary (5–14 age group) and
years in 2020 has already been surpassed
higher education (15–29 age group).
in some states like Kerala (33 years), Goa
Elementary education can be further
(32.3), Tamil Nadu (31.3), Himachal
subdivided into primary (5–9 age group)
and middle/upper primary (10–14 age Pradesh (30.4), Punjab (29.9), Andhra
group). The first stage of impact will be Pradesh (29.3), and West Bengal (29.1).
felt in declining enrolment in primary This lag in demographic transition
schools. As stated earlier, total enrolment among states in India could turn out to
in primary schools has fallen in 2013- be a great blessing from the point of view
14 while upper primary enrolment has of coping with the problem of declining
grown. The dependency ratio for India is population. India is better placed in this
expected to fall from 54 per cent in 2010 respect than most other countries. Thus,
to 49 per cent in 2020. In this scenario, two set of policy initiatives emerge for the
given interstate disparities, states that are states—
already facing this situation need to adopt (a) The states which are already well
specific policy measures in the field of into the demographic window
education, wherein, instead of expanding should actively pursue policies for
the number of primary schools, focus employment generation to the already
should be on— bulging labour force.