8.42         ndian      onom
     document, the WTO provisions were supposed to                   range from $3.5 to $7 billion worth extra
     have the following positive impacts on the world                exports.57
     trade:                                                    (ii) The NCAER (National Council for
           (i) By 2005 there will be an addition of $745             Applied Economic Research) survey of
               billion in the world merchandise trade.56             the WTO on the Indian economy is
         (ii) The GATT Secretariat provided a full                   cited as the best document in this area.
               break-up of the above-projected trade                 The survey58 had all important things to
               increase in the following way:                        say on this issue:
               (a) The clothing sector to have a share of            (a) The exports of agricultural products
                    60 per cent.                                          will be boosted by the WTO accepted
               (b) The agricultural, forestry and fisheries               regime.
                    products to have a share of 20 per cent.        (b) Only the foodgrains trade that too of
               (c) The processed food, beverages and                      wheat and rice were projected to be
                    drinks to have a share of 19 per cent.                around $270 billion.
           It means that due to the implementation of the            (c) The survey also pointed out that
     WTO provisions, there will be only one per cent                      almost 80–90 per cent of the increased
                                                                          supply of foodgrains to the world
     increase in the trade of all other goods excluding
                                                                          is going to originate from only two
     the above-cited sectors. It was a highly inflated                    countries China and India as they
     view and became a matter of debate around the                        are having the scope for increasing
     world. But the areas which were projected to have                    production.
     very high increase in their trade were not mere                (d) But the survey painted a very wretched
     projections either. Member countries went home                       picture about the preparedness of
     and started going for their own studies, estimations                 Indian agriculture sector to exploit
     and projections—India being no exception. We                         the opportunities. It concluded
     must see the assessment of India:                                    China to be far better than India is
                                                                          this matter.
           (i) The products which were projected to
                                                                     (e) It suggested almost every form of
               have the maximum increase in their
                                                                          preparedness for the agriculture sector
               trade, India had a traditional great export
                                                                          (at a glance we may have been on the
               potential in them. It means the WTO has                    Second Green Revolution in India—
               a great prospect for agriculture in store                  basically the revolution is modelled
               as maximum goods fell in the agriculture                   on the findings and suggestions of the
               sector. Assuming that India’s share in the                 survey).
               world exports improves from 0.5 per cent              (f) Lastly, the survey ended at a high
               to 1.0 per cent, and India is able to take                 note of caution and concern that if
               advantage of the opportunities that are                    India fails in its preparations to make
               created, the trade gains may conservatively                agriculture come out as a winner
               be placed at $2.7 billion extra exports       57.   Ministry of Finance, Economic Survey 1994–95 (New
               per year. A more generous estimate will             Delhi: Government of India, 1995).
                                                             58.   NCAER Survey headed by its chairman Rakesh Mohan,
       56.    Merchandise trade does not include services.         GoI, 1994.