8.42 ndian onom
document, the WTO provisions were supposed to range from $3.5 to $7 billion worth extra
have the following positive impacts on the world exports.57
trade: (ii) The NCAER (National Council for
(i) By 2005 there will be an addition of $745 Applied Economic Research) survey of
billion in the world merchandise trade.56 the WTO on the Indian economy is
(ii) The GATT Secretariat provided a full cited as the best document in this area.
break-up of the above-projected trade The survey58 had all important things to
increase in the following way: say on this issue:
(a) The clothing sector to have a share of (a) The exports of agricultural products
60 per cent. will be boosted by the WTO accepted
(b) The agricultural, forestry and fisheries regime.
products to have a share of 20 per cent. (b) Only the foodgrains trade that too of
(c) The processed food, beverages and wheat and rice were projected to be
drinks to have a share of 19 per cent. around $270 billion.
It means that due to the implementation of the (c) The survey also pointed out that
WTO provisions, there will be only one per cent almost 80–90 per cent of the increased
supply of foodgrains to the world
increase in the trade of all other goods excluding
is going to originate from only two
the above-cited sectors. It was a highly inflated countries China and India as they
view and became a matter of debate around the are having the scope for increasing
world. But the areas which were projected to have production.
very high increase in their trade were not mere (d) But the survey painted a very wretched
projections either. Member countries went home picture about the preparedness of
and started going for their own studies, estimations Indian agriculture sector to exploit
and projections—India being no exception. We the opportunities. It concluded
must see the assessment of India: China to be far better than India is
this matter.
(i) The products which were projected to
(e) It suggested almost every form of
have the maximum increase in their
preparedness for the agriculture sector
trade, India had a traditional great export
(at a glance we may have been on the
potential in them. It means the WTO has Second Green Revolution in India—
a great prospect for agriculture in store basically the revolution is modelled
as maximum goods fell in the agriculture on the findings and suggestions of the
sector. Assuming that India’s share in the survey).
world exports improves from 0.5 per cent (f) Lastly, the survey ended at a high
to 1.0 per cent, and India is able to take note of caution and concern that if
advantage of the opportunities that are India fails in its preparations to make
created, the trade gains may conservatively agriculture come out as a winner
be placed at $2.7 billion extra exports 57. Ministry of Finance, Economic Survey 1994–95 (New
per year. A more generous estimate will Delhi: Government of India, 1995).
58. NCAER Survey headed by its chairman Rakesh Mohan,
56. Merchandise trade does not include services. GoI, 1994.